Alverca 3-0 Pero Pinheiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.16
Draw
17%
6.26
Away
23%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.81
No
55%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
34%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
82%
-21.2pp
17%
Draw
13%
+4.0pp
23%
Away Win
6%
+17.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
32%
+13.3pp
55%
BTTS No
68%
-13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Pero Pinheiro EU Bookmakers 8%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.32/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/5.00
-20% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -44%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
452 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Pero Pinheiro
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
26.08.2023 Alverca Alverca 3-0 HT 2-0 Pero Pinheiro Pero Pinheiro POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
3-0
AWAY Pero Pinheiro
75% Ball Possession 25%
34 Total Shots 3
15 Shots on Target 0
13 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Pero Pinheiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca ran out comfortable winners over Pero Pinheiro 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alverca had 75% of the ball to Pero Pinheiro's 25%, shots finished 34-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alverca had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Alverca and 0.50 for Pero Pinheiro.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Pero Pinheiro?

Alverca 3-0 Pero Pinheiro in the Portugal - Cup on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Pero Pinheiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Alverca 60%, draw 17%, Pero Pinheiro 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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