Maria da Fonte 0-5 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
12.23
Draw
24%
8.78
Away
58%
1.06
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.89
Over 2.5
51%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
5%
+14.0pp
24%
Draw
8%
+16.1pp
58%
Away Win
88%
-30.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
31%
+17.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
69%
-17.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maria da Fonte EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 94%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-61% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
255 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 453 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maria da Fonte
0-5
AWAY Arouca
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 30
5 Shots on Target 15
1 Corners 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Maria da Fonte vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca ran out comfortable winners over Maria da Fonte 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Maria da Fonte had 34% of the ball to Arouca's 66%, shots finished 8-30.

What was the final score of Maria da Fonte vs Arouca?

Maria da Fonte 0-5 Arouca in the Portugal - Cup on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maria da Fonte vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Maria da Fonte 19%, draw 24%, Arouca 58%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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