Sporting Covilha 3-2 Moncarapachense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.74
Over
54%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.9
No
45%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
38%
4-5
27%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
52%
-10.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
21%
+11.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
54%
-8.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
46%
+8.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.9pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha The Market 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Moncarapachense The Market 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
3-2
AWAY Moncarapachense
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Moncarapachense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Moncarapachense 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Covilha as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 58% of the ball to Moncarapachense's 42%, shots finished 11-7.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Moncarapachense?

Sporting Covilha 3-2 Moncarapachense in the Portugal - Cup on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Moncarapachense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 42%, draw 26%, Moncarapachense 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Covilha), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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