Bahia 4-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Oct 2025

Bahia
4-0 HT 2-0
Gremio
📅20/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.28
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
17%
4.32
X/2
6%
9.34
X/X
12%
4.86
2/1
11%
24.0
2/2
12%
7.48
2/X
6%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.51/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.80
-3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.8 Crosses 12.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gremio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.09 xG 1.31
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
429 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
17.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
28.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.11.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
05.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
4-0
AWAY Gremio
3.01 xG 0.68
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 5
473 Passes 311
90% Pass Accuracy 89%
40 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia swept aside Gremio 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bahia had 59% of the ball to Gremio's 41%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 3.01 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bahia and 0.67 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Gremio?

Bahia 4-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bahia 51%, draw 26%, Gremio 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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