Gremio 1-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 May 2025

Gremio
1-0 HT 0-0
Bahia
📅25/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.88
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
20.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.67
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
5.48
X/2
12%
6.12
X/X
12%
4.11
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
17%
4.36
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 36%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.30/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.52
+17% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -33%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
274 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
16.3 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bahia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 1.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
340 Passes 399
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
28.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.11.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
05.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
02.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-0
AWAY Bahia
1.15 xG 1.22
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 17
216 Passes 503
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 40
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Bahia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Gremio found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gremio had 32% of the ball to Bahia's 68%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.15 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gremio and 1.00 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Bahia?

Gremio 1-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gremio 37%, draw 27%, Bahia 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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