Chelsea 1-0 Pafos FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2026

📅21/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
77%
1.16
Draw
14%
7.78
Away
9%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
33%
3.68
Over
67%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
18%
9.2
2-3
35%
2.5
4-5
29%
2.31
6+
18%
3.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1.18
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
34.5
X/1
17%
4.17
X/2
3%
35.0
X/X
6%
15.0
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
3%
35.0
2/X
4%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Chelsea win — 77%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
77%
Home Win
82%
-5.6pp
14%
Draw
10%
+3.7pp
9%
Away Win
7%
+1.9pp
33%
Under 2.5
24%
+9.2pp
67%
Over 2.5
76%
-9.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.4pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea The Market 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Pafos FC The Market 9%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
2.59/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.19
+10% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +150%
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
560 · 89% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 77%
33.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
20.6 Crosses 8.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1-0
AWAY Pafos FC
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
15 Corners 2
705 Passes 246
95% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Pafos FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea squeezed past Pafos FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chelsea had 71% of the ball to Pafos FC's 29%, shots finished 21-4.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Pafos FC?

Chelsea 1-0 Pafos FC in the Champions League on 21/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Pafos FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 77%, draw 14%, Pafos FC 9%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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