Bosna-Hersek 1-2 Ukrayna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro Qualifiers, 21 Mar 2024

Bosna-Hersek
1-2 HT 0-0
Ukrayna
📅21/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Euro Qualifiers – 2024

Bosna-Hersek vs Ukrayna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
3.29
Draw
21%
3.11
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.62
Over 2.5
52%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.56
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.62
6+ Goals
10%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.45
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
6.78
X/2
12%
4.44
X/X
8%
3.94
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.0
2/X
5%
13.9
Value flag · X/1 at 6.78 — our 18% vs market 10.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
27%
+12.3pp
21%
Draw
29%
-7.4pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
58%
-9.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
42%
+9.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bosna-Hersek v Ukrayna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bosna-Hersek EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 48%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
0.49/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.63
-27% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +131% / -48%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
10.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
11.2 Crosses 11.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bosna-Hersek vs Ukrayna Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bosna-Hersek
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Ukrayna
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.90 xG 2.09
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
340 Passes 460
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
16.11.2021 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek 0-2 HT 0-0 Ukrayna Ukrayna DKE
12.10.2021 Ukrayna Ukrayna 1-1 HT 1-0 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek DKE

Bosna-Hersek 1-2 Ukrayna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bosna-Hersek
1-2
AWAY Ukrayna
0.89 xG 1.59
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
164 Passes 439
61% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bosna-Hersek vs Ukrayna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ukrayna edged past Bosna-Hersek 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 21% / 39%) promised a tight game; Ukrayna found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Bosna-Hersek had 34% of the ball to Ukrayna's 66%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.89 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ukrayna led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bosna-Hersek and 1.50 for Ukrayna.

What was the final score of Bosna-Hersek vs Ukrayna?

Bosna-Hersek 1-2 Ukrayna in the Euro Qualifiers on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bosna-Hersek vs Ukrayna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bosna-Hersek win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bosna-Hersek 40%, draw 21%, Ukrayna 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bosna-Hersek), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bosna-Hersek) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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