Galler 4-1 Finlandiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro Qualifiers, 21 Mar 2024

Galler
4-1 HT 2-1
Finlandiya
📅21/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Euro Qualifiers – 2024

Galler vs Finlandiya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.48
Over 2.5
35%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.29
No
65%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
5.87
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.5
X/1
28%
3.72
X/2
8%
8.7
X/X
10%
3.7
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
10%
8.07
2/X
10%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.3pp
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.8pp
65%
BTTS No
60%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Galler v Finlandiya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galler EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Finlandiya EU Bookmakers 23%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.02/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.87
-44% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
– Crosses 9.8
– Yellow Cards 1.7

Galler vs Finlandiya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galler
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Finlandiya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.76 xG 0.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
456 Passes 411
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.09.2021 Finlandiya Finlandiya 0-0 HT 0-0 Galler Galler HAZ
18.11.2020 Galler Galler 3-1 HT 1-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya AVUL
03.09.2020 Finlandiya Finlandiya 0-1 HT 0-0 Galler Galler AVUL
16.11.2013 Galler Galler 1-1 HT 0-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya HAZ
10.10.2009 Finlandiya Finlandiya 2-1 HT 1-1 Galler Galler DKE
28.03.2009 Galler Galler 0-2 HT 0-1 Finlandiya Finlandiya DKE

Galler 4-1 Finlandiya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galler
4-1
AWAY Finlandiya
3.07 xG 1.45
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
318 Passes 478
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Galler vs Finlandiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galler swept aside Finlandiya 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Galler as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Galler had 41% of the ball to Finlandiya's 59%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 3.07 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Galler and 1.00 for Finlandiya.

What was the final score of Galler vs Finlandiya?

Galler 4-1 Finlandiya in the Euro Qualifiers on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galler vs Finlandiya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galler win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Galler 52%, draw 26%, Finlandiya 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galler) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Galler) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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