Polonya 5-1 Estonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro Qualifiers, 21 Mar 2024

📅21/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.22
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
10%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.6
No
59%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.75
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.25
6+ Goals
13%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.39
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
33.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
34%
3.09
X/2
3%
28.5
X/X
12%
7.98
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
3%
26.0
2/X
4%
34.0
Value flag · X/1 at 3.09 — our 34% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
78%
-8.5pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.2pp
10%
Away Win
7%
+3.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
34%
+6.5pp
59%
BTTS No
66%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Estonya EU Bookmakers 9%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.16/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.27/2.40
-48% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -7%
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
458 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 207 · 68%
42.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
38.1 Crosses 5.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Estonya
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
15.08.2012 Estonya Estonya 1-0 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya HAZ
16.11.2005 Polonya Polonya 3-1 HT 1-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya
5-1
AWAY Estonya
2.76 xG 0.08
85% Ball Possession 15%
25 Total Shots 1
10 Shots on Target 1
17 Corners 1
658 Passes 76
92% Pass Accuracy 57%
55 Box Touches 3
45 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Polonya vs Estonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya cruised past Estonya 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Polonya as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Polonya had 85% of the ball to Estonya's 15%, shots finished 25-1, expected goals 2.76 to 0.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Polonya and 1.00 for Estonya.

What was the final score of Polonya vs Estonya?

Polonya 5-1 Estonya in the Euro Qualifiers on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya vs Estonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonya win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Polonya 69%, draw 21%, Estonya 10%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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