Polonya 1-0 Litvanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
74%
1.29
Draw
15%
4.95
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.85
6+ Goals
14%
8.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.45
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
22.1
X/1
22%
3.72
X/2
4%
21.1
X/X
7%
7.69
2/1
17%
23.4
2/2
3%
19.1
2/X
4%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
74%
Home Win
73%
+0.8pp
15%
Draw
17%
-1.9pp
11%
Away Win
10%
+1.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Litvanya EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
2.73/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.22/2.05
+35% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -90% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
38.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.9
30.1 Crosses 8.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Litvanya
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
422 Passes 239
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.06.2018 Polonya Polonya 4-0 HT 2-0 Litvanya Litvanya HAZ
06.06.2016 Polonya Polonya 0-0 HT 0-0 Litvanya Litvanya HAZ
06.06.2014 Polonya Polonya 2-1 HT 0-1 Litvanya Litvanya HAZ
25.03.2011 Litvanya Litvanya 2-0 HT 2-0 Polonya Polonya HAZ
02.05.2006 Polonya Polonya 0-1 HT 0-1 Litvanya Litvanya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya
1-0
AWAY Litvanya
2.27 xG 0.84
62% Ball Possession 38%
24 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
410 Passes 231
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 10
34 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Polonya vs Litvanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya nicked a narrow win over Litvanya 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Polonya as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Polonya had 62% of the ball to Litvanya's 38%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.27 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Polonya's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Polonya and 0.80 for Litvanya.

What was the final score of Polonya vs Litvanya?

Polonya 1-0 Litvanya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya vs Litvanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonya win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Polonya 74%, draw 15%, Litvanya 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonya), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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