Brezilya 2-1 Kolombiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.01
6+ Goals
8%
19.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 31% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
15.25
X/1
20%
3.97
X/2
9%
10.65
X/X
11%
4.58
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
9%
9.41
2/X
7%
17.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-9.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Kolombiya EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -10%
2.04/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.15
+19% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
12.0 Crosses 9.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brezilya
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kolombiya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 0.96
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
482 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.07.2024 Brezilya Brezilya 1-1 HT 1-1 Kolombiya Kolombiya AKU
17.11.2023 Kolombiya Kolombiya 2-1 HT 0-1 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
12.11.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 1-0 HT 0-0 Kolombiya Kolombiya DKE
11.10.2021 Kolombiya Kolombiya 0-0 HT 0-0 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
24.06.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 2-1 HT 0-1 Kolombiya Kolombiya AKU
07.09.2019 Brezilya Brezilya 2-2 HT 1-2 Kolombiya Kolombiya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya
2-1
AWAY Kolombiya
2.44 xG 0.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
312 Passes 297
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brezilya vs Kolombiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya squeezed past Kolombiya 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brezilya as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brezilya had 51% of the ball to Kolombiya's 49%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.44 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brezilya's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brezilya and 1.00 for Kolombiya.

What was the final score of Brezilya vs Kolombiya?

Brezilya 2-1 Kolombiya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya vs Kolombiya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Brezilya 48%, draw 28%, Kolombiya 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DKE More World Cup Qualifiers
21 Mar 2025
00:00 Komorlar vs Mali Analysis →
02:00 Paraguay vs Şili Analysis →
04:30 Peru vs Bolivya Analysis →
16:00 Botsvana vs Cezayir Analysis →
16:00 Ekvator Ginesi vs Sao Tome ve Principe Analysis →
19:00 D.Kongo Cumhuriyeti vs Güney Sudan Analysis →