Auckland vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Auckland v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Auckland vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Auckland 1-2 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur squeezed past Auckland 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Auckland at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Auckland had 65% of the ball to Macarthur's 35%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.44 to 0.98 — the balance of chances actually favoured Auckland.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Auckland had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Auckland and 0.67 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Auckland vs Macarthur?
Auckland 1-2 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Auckland vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Auckland 56%, draw 20%, Macarthur 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Auckland) went the other way.