Melbourne Victory 4-1 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒09:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.42
Draw
17%
4.49
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.2pp
17%
Draw
19%
-1.7pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +18%
1.87/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.73
+2% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
18.0 Crosses 12.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
439 Passes 376
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2026 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
08.03.2025 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 2-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
18.10.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
25.05.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
25.02.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
13.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
4-1
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
57% Ball Possession 43%
34 Total Shots 13
12 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
399 Passes 300
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory ran out comfortable winners over Central Coast Mariners 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 57% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 43%, shots finished 34-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.00 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Melbourne Victory 4-1 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 63%, draw 17%, Central Coast Mariners 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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