Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Brisbane Roar 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix nicked a narrow win over Brisbane Roar 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Brisbane Roar had 58% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 42%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.72 to 2.27.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.33 for Wellington Phoenix.
What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
Brisbane Roar 1-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 43%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar) went the other way.