Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.0
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
12%
5.91
X/2
12%
5.56
X/X
11%
4.54
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.65
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 40%
+13% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.42/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.62
-13% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 82%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
16.8 Crosses 17.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.43 xG 1.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
394 Passes 498
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUK
26.04.2025 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
06.02.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
31.03.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
02.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
04.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 5-2 HT 2-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
2-1
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.55 xG 0.98
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
386 Passes 174
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix edged past Brisbane Roar 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Wellington Phoenix made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 64% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 36%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.55 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 0.83 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar?

Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 39%, draw 26%, Brisbane Roar 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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