Brisbane Roar 0-3 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.95
Over 2.5
37%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
3.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
3.38
6+ Goals
7%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 37% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.99
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.35
X/1
22%
3.98
X/2
9%
10.95
X/X
16%
5.71
2/1
5%
22.7
2/2
6%
9.16
2/X
4%
18.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.5pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.5pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
48%
+15.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
52%
-15.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.8pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 21%
-19% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.49/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.19
-58% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 78%
41.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.4 Crosses 11.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
443 Passes 388
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
14.05.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUK
26.04.2025 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
06.02.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
31.03.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
02.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
0-3
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.43 xG 1.39
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
373 Passes 159
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
34 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix swept aside Brisbane Roar 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Brisbane Roar at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, no to both teams scoring (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 66% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 34%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.43 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?

Brisbane Roar 0-3 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 55%, draw 27%, Wellington Phoenix 18%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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3 Jan 2026
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