Aalborg 1-1 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 21 Mar 2026

Aalborg
1-1 HT 0-1
Esbjerg
📅21/03/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2025/2026

Aalborg vs Esbjerg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.07
Over 2.5
59%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
9.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.74
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
18%
4.92
X/2
8%
7.24
X/X
8%
5.12
2/1
7%
22.65
2/2
12%
4.98
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
+4.9pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.2pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aalborg v Esbjerg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.75/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.03
+27% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
17.7 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7

Aalborg vs Esbjerg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Esbjerg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.20 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
369 Passes 317
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-0 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
30.10.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-2 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
19.08.2020 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 2-0 Aalborg Aalborg HAZ
31.05.2020 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-1 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
11.08.2019 Aalborg Aalborg 4-0 HT 4-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
30.11.2018 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-4 HT 0-2 Aalborg Aalborg DAN

Aalborg 1-1 Esbjerg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalborg
1-1
AWAY Esbjerg
0.83 xG 2.72
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 7
455 Passes 258
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 38
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalborg and Esbjerg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Aalborg at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Aalborg had 62% of the ball to Esbjerg's 38%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.83 to 2.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aalborg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aalborg and 0.83 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs Esbjerg?

Aalborg 1-1 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 51%, draw 21%, Esbjerg 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aalborg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aalborg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
21 Mar 2026
15:00 Kolding IF vs B93 Kopenhag Analysis →
15:00 AC Horsens vs Hvidovre Analysis →
15:00 HB Koge vs Lyngby Analysis →
15:00 Hillerod vs Aarhus Fremad Analysis →
15:00 Middelfart vs Hobro IK Analysis →