Ceuta 2-1 Atletico Baleares — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
14%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.85
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.19 — our 30% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
69%
-3.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.3pp
14%
Away Win
12%
+2.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-5.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Baleares EU Bookmakers 15%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
2.19/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.99
+23% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -16%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
432 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Atletico Baleares
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Atletico Baleares Atletico Baleares 1-2 HT 0-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Atletico Baleares
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta squeezed past Atletico Baleares 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ceuta as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Atletico Baleares?

Ceuta 2-1 Atletico Baleares in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Atletico Baleares?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 65%, draw 21%, Atletico Baleares 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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