Orange County SC 0-2 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Apr 2024

Orange County SC
0-2 HT 0-2
Sacramento Republic
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.6
Over
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
36%
2.55
2-3
42%
1.77
4-5
15%
4.64
6+
7%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.55 — our 36% vs market 33.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+3.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-3.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.5pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.5pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orange County SC v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 49%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.34/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.04
+0% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +89%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
18.0 Crosses 15.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
332 Passes 418
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-2 HT 1-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
27.08.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-2 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
18.05.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
19.09.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 4-0 HT 4-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
17.04.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-1 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
25.07.2021 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP

Orange County SC 0-2 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
0-2
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.29 xG 1.06
57% Ball Possession 43%
5 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
451 Passes 319
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic saw off Orange County SC 2-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Orange County SC had 57% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 43%, shots finished 5-9, expected goals 0.29 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Orange County SC and 1.50 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?

Orange County SC 0-2 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 29%, draw 29%, Sacramento Republic 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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