Hartlepool United 3-2 Gateshead — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.2
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
11%
8.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 29% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.28
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
13%
12.9
X/1
15%
5.59
X/2
14%
6.34
X/X
12%
5.54
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
12%
3.98
2/X
5%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.7pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gateshead EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +6%
1.39/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.24
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
70 · 93% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 77 · 96%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartlepool United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gateshead
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 9
3 Passes 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.12.2024 Gateshead Gateshead 4-3 HT 2-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
26.03.2024 Gateshead Gateshead 7-1 HT 1-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
12.08.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 1-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
01.01.2019 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 1-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
26.12.2018 Gateshead Gateshead 2-1 HT 2-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
01.01.2018 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-2 HT 1-1 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartlepool United
3-2
AWAY Gateshead
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
0 Passes 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hartlepool United vs Gateshead
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartlepool United edged past Gateshead 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Hartlepool United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hartlepool United had 43% of the ball to Gateshead's 57%, shots finished 13-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gateshead led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hartlepool United and 2.83 for Gateshead.

What was the final score of Hartlepool United vs Gateshead?

Hartlepool United 3-2 Gateshead in the England - National League on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartlepool United vs Gateshead?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartlepool United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Hartlepool United 36%, draw 30%, Gateshead 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartlepool United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartlepool United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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