Gateshead 4-3 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.35
2-3 Goals
45%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
11%
13.6
X/1
9%
4.63
X/2
10%
7.79
X/X
9%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.7
2/2
12%
5.21
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gateshead EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
2.02/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.68
+26% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gateshead
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hartlepool United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.03.2024 Gateshead Gateshead 7-1 HT 1-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
12.08.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 1-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
01.01.2019 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 1-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
26.12.2018 Gateshead Gateshead 2-1 HT 2-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
01.01.2018 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-2 HT 1-1 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
26.12.2017 Gateshead Gateshead 2-2 HT 1-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gateshead
4-3
AWAY Hartlepool United
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
4 Passes 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gateshead vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gateshead nicked a narrow win over Hartlepool United 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gateshead as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Gateshead had 63% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 37%, shots finished 17-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Gateshead and 1.67 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Gateshead vs Hartlepool United?

Gateshead 4-3 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gateshead vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gateshead win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gateshead 45%, draw 27%, Hartlepool United 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gateshead), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gateshead) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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