AFC Hornchurch 2-0 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 21 Apr 2025

AFC Hornchurch
2-0 HT 1-0
Aveley
📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Conference – 2024/2025

AFC Hornchurch vs Aveley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.19
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 26% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Hornchurch v Aveley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 25%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -22%
1.64/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.07
-7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

AFC Hornchurch vs Aveley Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Hornchurch
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Aveley
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.12.2024 Aveley Aveley 1-1 HT 1-0 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch İCON
03.10.2023 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 1-2 HT 1-0 Aveley Aveley FAK
30.09.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-2 HT 2-0 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch FAK
11.01.2020 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 1-2 HT 1-1 Aveley Aveley FAK
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch beat Aveley 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AFC Hornchurch as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Aveley led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for AFC Hornchurch and 1.75 for Aveley.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Aveley?

AFC Hornchurch 2-0 Aveley in the England - Conference on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 48%, draw 25%, Aveley 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) ✗ Over 2.5
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