Northampton Town 4-1 Shrewsbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.78
6+ Goals
11%
16.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.08
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.7
X/1
18%
4.01
X/2
8%
10.95
X/X
8%
4.88
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
9.55
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
17.9
Value flag · 2/X at 17.9 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 21%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
0.19/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.52
-91% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
317 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 63%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
16.0 Crosses 15.4
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Shrewsbury
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.06
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
205 Passes 224
61% Pass Accuracy 63%
14 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.12.2024 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
27.01.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
07.10.2023 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
02.04.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
19.09.2020 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
20.03.2018 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
4-1
AWAY Shrewsbury
1.07 xG 2.02
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
159 Passes 303
64% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Shrewsbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town ran out comfortable winners over Shrewsbury 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Northampton Town as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Northampton Town had 39% of the ball to Shrewsbury's 61%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.07 to 2.02 — the balance of chances actually favoured Shrewsbury.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Northampton Town and 1.00 for Shrewsbury.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Shrewsbury?

Northampton Town 4-1 Shrewsbury in the England - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Shrewsbury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 50%, draw 25%, Shrewsbury 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Northampton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Northampton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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