Accrington Stanley 1-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 32% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.29
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
19%
5.17
X/2
13%
6.34
X/X
16%
4.67
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
12%
4.51
2/X
5%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.9pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.33/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.13
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
258 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 62%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.1 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.08 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
231 Passes 198
66% Pass Accuracy 62%
17 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
29.12.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
05.09.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
26.12.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-1 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
09.09.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-0 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
21.01.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
03.09.2016 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
1-1
AWAY Carlisle United
0.73 xG 0.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
153 Passes 229
53% Pass Accuracy 63%
14 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Accrington Stanley and Carlisle United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 44% of the ball to Carlisle United's 56%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 0.73 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.17 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Carlisle United?

Accrington Stanley 1-1 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 40%, draw 26%, Carlisle United 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Accrington Stanley), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Accrington Stanley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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