Carlisle United 2-1 Accrington Stanley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 31% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.5
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
10%
5.21
X/2
12%
5.84
X/X
16%
4.54
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
18%
4.13
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -16%
1.26/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.34
-2% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -42%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
245 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 65%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.7 Crosses 21.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 0.81
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
221 Passes 257
62% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
05.09.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
26.12.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-1 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
09.09.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-0 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
21.01.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
03.09.2016 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
16.02.2016 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
2-1
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.59 xG 1.34
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
176 Passes 205
62% Pass Accuracy 65%
20 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Accrington Stanley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United edged past Accrington Stanley 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Carlisle United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carlisle United had 47% of the ball to Accrington Stanley's 53%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.59 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carlisle United and 1.33 for Accrington Stanley.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Accrington Stanley?

Carlisle United 2-1 Accrington Stanley in the England - 2nd Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Accrington Stanley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 35%, draw 28%, Accrington Stanley 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Accrington Stanley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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