Cheltenham Town 3-5 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Dec 2024

Cheltenham Town
3-5 HT 1-2
Notts County
📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Cheltenham Town vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
12.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.58
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
12%
6.48
X/2
11%
4.9
X/X
11%
4.78
2/1
11%
33.0
2/2
21%
3.1
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cheltenham Town v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -17%
1.15/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.98
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -50%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
311 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 74%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
21.3 Crosses 21.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Cheltenham Town vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Notts County
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
The Meetings
09.03.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 4-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
17.11.2018 Notts County Notts County 0-3 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
06.03.2018 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
18.11.2017 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
11.02.2017 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
17.09.2016 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Notts County Notts County İN2

Cheltenham Town 3-5 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
3-5
AWAY Notts County
1.14 xG 2.48
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
227 Passes 312
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 21
29 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County beat Cheltenham Town 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Notts County made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 44% of the ball to Notts County's 56%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.14 to 2.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cheltenham Town and 1.67 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Notts County?

Cheltenham Town 3-5 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 38%, draw 24%, Notts County 38%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5
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