Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.8
Over 2.5
38%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 33% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.99
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
13%
4.65
X/2
7%
6.69
X/X
15%
4.62
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
16%
4.97
2/X
8%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.1pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.63/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.11
+39% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
11.6 Crosses 17.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 1.10
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
435 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 3-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
02.09.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
05.04.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 2-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
30.10.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-4 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
05.04.2021 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-2 HT 0-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
26.09.2020 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-0 HT 2-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
1-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.56 xG 1.21
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
401 Passes 252
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons and Crewe Alexandra shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 30%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 59% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 41%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.56 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.67 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra?

Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 40%, draw 31%, Crewe Alexandra 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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