Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
3-1 HT 3-1
Crewe Alexandra
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 28% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
11%
4.54
X/2
10%
7.37
X/X
12%
4.89
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
13%
5.28
2/X
9%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milton Keynes Dons v Crewe Alexandra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.10/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.24
+4% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
14.1 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.19 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
447 Passes 295
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
05.04.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 2-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
30.10.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-4 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
05.04.2021 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-2 HT 0-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
26.09.2020 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-0 HT 2-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
19.01.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2

Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Crewe Alexandra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
2.25 xG 1.82
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
377 Passes 290
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons beat Crewe Alexandra 3-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 54% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 46%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.25 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.67 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 42%, draw 28%, Crewe Alexandra 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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