Swindon Town 1-2 Doncaster Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2024

Swindon Town
1-2 HT 0-2
Doncaster Rovers
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 29% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.85
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
20%
4.84
X/2
11%
6.81
X/X
10%
5.22
2/1
10%
23.15
2/2
13%
4.59
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Doncaster Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.44/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.30
+14% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
326 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 69%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.7 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.70 xG 0.81
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
417 Passes 288
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
11.02.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
17.09.2022 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
16.01.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
15.12.2020 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
01.03.2016 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1

Swindon Town 1-2 Doncaster Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-2
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
1.58 xG 0.48
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
364 Passes 163
73% Pass Accuracy 56%
35 Box Touches 7
29 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 64% of the ball to Doncaster Rovers's 36%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.58 to 0.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Swindon Town.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Doncaster Rovers led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Swindon Town and 1.00 for Doncaster Rovers.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Swindon Town 1-2 Doncaster Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 43%, draw 26%, Doncaster Rovers 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Under 2.5
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