Crewe Alexandra 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.98
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.85
X/2
13%
6.95
X/X
9%
4.58
2/1
12%
26.5
2/2
10%
5.2
2/X
10%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -23%
1.22/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.15
+16% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 67%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.7 Crosses 17.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crewe Alexandra
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.43
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
303 Passes 410
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.12.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
16.03.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 3-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
02.09.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
05.04.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 2-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
30.10.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-4 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
05.04.2021 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-2 HT 0-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crewe Alexandra
0-1
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.20 xG 1.60
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
281 Passes 112
74% Pass Accuracy 51%
28 Box Touches 18
35 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crewe Alexandra vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons squeezed past Crewe Alexandra 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Crewe Alexandra at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Crewe Alexandra had 65% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 35%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.20 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Crewe Alexandra and 1.83 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Crewe Alexandra vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Crewe Alexandra 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crewe Alexandra vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Crewe Alexandra 46%, draw 25%, Milton Keynes Dons 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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