Gillingham 1-0 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.21
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
15%
5.08
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.28
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
10%
15.35
X/1
11%
6.35
X/2
13%
4.7
X/X
12%
3.82
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
15%
3.34
2/X
7%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-5.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.5pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 45%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -10%
1.07/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.21
-39% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
255 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 68%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
20.8 Crosses 20.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
3W-0D-3L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
239 Passes 276
66% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
12.03.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.11.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
25.02.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
09.08.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İNLK
30.07.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-0
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.60 xG 0.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 7
172 Passes 198
61% Pass Accuracy 66%
18 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham nicked a narrow win over AFC Wimbledon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; Gillingham found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gillingham had 48% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 52%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.60 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gillingham and 1.00 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?

Gillingham 1-0 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 35%, draw 30%, AFC Wimbledon 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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