Notts County 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Apr 2025

Notts County
1-2 HT 1-0
Cheltenham Town
📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.23
Over
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No Pick
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
4.34
2-3
39%
1.87
4-5
22%
2.8
6+
11%
7.83
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.34 — our 28% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.87
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
14%
4.19
X/2
13%
12.05
X/X
9%
6.48
2/1
10%
20.65
2/2
7%
9.33
2/X
10%
17.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.3pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.79/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.50
+32% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 68%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
20.1 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Notts County vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
2.48 xG 1.14
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
312 Passes 227
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.12.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 3-5 HT 1-2 Notts County Notts County İN2
09.03.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 4-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
17.11.2018 Notts County Notts County 0-3 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
06.03.2018 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
18.11.2017 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
11.02.2017 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2

Notts County 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-2
AWAY Cheltenham Town
2.35 xG 1.06
61% Ball Possession 39%
22 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 6
319 Passes 162
78% Pass Accuracy 64%
31 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town nicked a narrow win over Notts County 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Notts County had 61% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 39%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.35 to 1.06 — on chances, Notts County could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Notts County and 2.17 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Cheltenham Town?

Notts County 1-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Notts County 50%, draw 24%, Cheltenham Town 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ BTTS No
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