Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
22%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
7.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.22
1/2
6%
23.3
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
6.78
X/2
16%
5.59
X/X
8%
5.47
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
15%
3.12
2/X
11%
12.25
Value flag · X/1 at 6.78 — our 17% vs market 11.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.4pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sheffield Wednesday EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.30/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.05
+2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
21.7 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sheffield Wednesday
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.48 xG 1.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 372
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.12.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-3 HT 3-0 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
01.04.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
19.09.2023 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
24.04.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
29.12.2020 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
22.07.2020 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sheffield Wednesday
2-1
AWAY Middlesbrough
3.56 xG 2.11
45% Ball Possession 55%
25 Total Shots 16
11 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
288 Passes 377
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
40 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sheffield Wednesday vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sheffield Wednesday squeezed past Middlesbrough 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Sheffield Wednesday made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sheffield Wednesday had 45% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 55%, shots finished 25-16, expected goals 3.56 to 2.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sheffield Wednesday's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 2.00 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Sheffield Wednesday vs Middlesbrough?

Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sheffield Wednesday vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sheffield Wednesday win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sheffield Wednesday 38%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sheffield Wednesday) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sheffield Wednesday)
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