Kopenhag 3-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.68
Over 2.5
50%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
4.31
6+ Goals
10%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.58
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.55
X/1
22%
4.3
X/2
10%
8.1
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
10%
6.74
2/X
8%
15.8
Value flag · 1/X at 14.55 — our 10% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.7pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kopenhag EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.70/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.48
-4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.4 Crosses 21.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kopenhag
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.77 xG 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
472 Passes 310
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-1 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
28.07.2024 Kopenhag Kopenhag 3-2 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
21.05.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-2 HT 3-1 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
28.04.2024 Kopenhag Kopenhag 3-2 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.12.2023 Kopenhag Kopenhag 1-2 HT 0-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
08.10.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
POST-MATCH Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kopenhag beat AGF Aarhus 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kopenhag as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kopenhag and 1.83 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus?

Kopenhag 3-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kopenhag win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kopenhag 46%, draw 28%, AGF Aarhus 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kopenhag), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kopenhag) ✓ BTTS Yes
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