Monterey Bay 1-0 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Jun 2026

📅21/06/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.6pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.5pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.44/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.24
+2% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
19.8 Crosses 13.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
1W-3D-2L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
335 Passes 362
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2026 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-3 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
17.08.2025 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
22.06.2025 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
25.08.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
14.03.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.09.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
1-0
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.51 xG 0.56
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
233 Passes 373
20 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay edged past El Paso Locomotive 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day Monterey Bay made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.51 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.50 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?

Monterey Bay 1-0 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 21/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated an El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 36%, draw 24%, El Paso Locomotive 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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