Monterey Bay 0-3 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 32% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.45/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.27
+3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.0 Crosses 13.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
1W-4D-1L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 1.41
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
361 Passes 364
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
22.06.2025 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
25.08.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
14.03.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.09.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
09.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
0-3
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.10 xG 1.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
282 Passes 363
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive ran out comfortable winners over Monterey Bay 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; El Paso Locomotive found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 46% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 54%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.10 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.00 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?

Monterey Bay 0-3 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated an El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 36%, draw 26%, El Paso Locomotive 38%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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