Oakland Roots 2-1 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.63
6+ Goals
11%
15.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.63 — our 24% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.5pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oakland Roots EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.28/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.46
-16% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
15.0 Crosses 11.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oakland Roots
3W-1D-2L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.58 xG 1.07
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 Passes 398
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
20.10.2025 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-3 HT 3-2 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
25.05.2025 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 0-3 HT 0-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
01.09.2024 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
12.05.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 1-0 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
24.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 0-1 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
02.04.2023 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oakland Roots
2-1
AWAY New Mexico United
1.20 xG 1.41
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 9
266 Passes 523
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 28
6 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Oakland Roots vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oakland Roots squeezed past New Mexico United 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Oakland Roots as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Oakland Roots had 36% of the ball to New Mexico United's 64%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 1.20 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oakland Roots had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oakland Roots and 1.50 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Oakland Roots vs New Mexico United?

Oakland Roots 2-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oakland Roots vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oakland Roots win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Oakland Roots 44%, draw 23%, New Mexico United 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oakland Roots), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Oakland Roots) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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