Phoenix Rising 1-1 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
7%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -6%
1.45/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.28
+26% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
15.9 Crosses 15.1
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
479 Passes 303
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2025 Orange County SC Orange County SC 4-1 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
08.06.2025 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.09.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-0 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
09.06.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
29.10.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
01.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
1-1
AWAY Orange County SC
0.72 xG 1.43
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
272 Passes 354
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising and Orange County SC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Phoenix Rising at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 44% of the ball to Orange County SC's 56%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.72 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Phoenix Rising and 1.67 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?

Phoenix Rising 1-1 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 44%, draw 29%, Orange County SC 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Phoenix Rising) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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