Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
New Mexico United
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
Sacramento Republic 0-1 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United edged past Sacramento Republic 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.14 to 0.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sacramento Republic.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sacramento Republic and 0.67 for New Mexico United.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Sacramento Republic 0-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 21/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 53%, draw 28%, New Mexico United 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic) went the other way.