New Mexico United 0-2 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-0.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +1%
1.35/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.18
+7% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
341 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
15.3 Crosses 17.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.10 xG 1.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
366 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-1 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
30.09.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 4-0 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
19.09.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-1 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
22.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 1-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
21.09.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
23.07.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
0-2
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.29 xG 0.60
61% Ball Possession 39%
6 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
390 Passes 223
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
8 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic saw off New Mexico United 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Sacramento Republic made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, New Mexico United had 61% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 39%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 0.29 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for New Mexico United and 1.33 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

New Mexico United 0-2 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 39%, draw 30%, Sacramento Republic 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (New Mexico United), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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