Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
New Mexico United
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
3-0
HT 1-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
2-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
Sacramento Republic 2-1 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic edged past New Mexico United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 35% / 29% — and on the day Sacramento Republic made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 45% of the ball to New Mexico United's 55%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 3.19 to 0.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sacramento Republic's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.00 for New Mexico United.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Sacramento Republic 2-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 35%, draw 35%, New Mexico United 29%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.