North Carolina 1-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.88
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 33% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.41/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.25
-14% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
15.2 Crosses 17.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.38 xG 1.04
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
434 Passes 280
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.06.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 0-0 HT 0-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
19.05.2024 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
18.08.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 5-0 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
21.07.2019 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
29.07.2018 North Carolina North Carolina 2-1 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
05.07.2018 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-0 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
1-1
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.14 xG 0.80
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
225 Passes 445
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Box Touches 17
5 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina and Pittsburgh Riverhounds shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was North Carolina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, North Carolina had 36% of the ball to Pittsburgh Riverhounds's 64%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 1.14 to 0.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for North Carolina and 0.83 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

North Carolina 1-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USL Championship on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 43%, draw 25%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (North Carolina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (North Carolina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
9 Mar 2025
03:00 Miami FC vs Detroit City Analysis →
03:00 Lexington vs Hartford Athletic Analysis →
03:30 Charleston Battery vs Louisville City Analysis →
04:00 Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United Analysis →
04:30 San Antonio vs Monterey Bay Analysis →
05:00 Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa Analysis →