Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Phoenix Rising v FC Tulsa — Team-Based Signals
Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Phoenix Rising 0-1 FC Tulsa — Actual Match Statistics
FC Tulsa shaded a tight game against Phoenix Rising 1-0 on their travels.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Phoenix Rising at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.
On the day, possession split 68% to 32% in Phoenix Rising's favour, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.49 to 1.49.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Phoenix Rising against 0.50 for FC Tulsa.
Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa Result & Final Score
Phoenix Rising 0 - 1 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 55%, draw 25%, FC Tulsa 20%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.