Phoenix Rising 0-1 FC Tulsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.2
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
3.32
6+ Goals
8%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 33% vs market 24.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+7.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +28%
1.61/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.64
-2% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
19.8 Crosses 13.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FC Tulsa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.06 xG 1.06
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 Passes 313
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.09.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
06.04.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 3-3 HT 1-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
10.09.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
28.07.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
08.06.2019 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 5-0 HT 3-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
17.06.2018 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
0-1
AWAY FC Tulsa
0.49 xG 1.49
68% Ball Possession 32%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
415 Passes 157
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa squeezed past Phoenix Rising 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Phoenix Rising at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 68% of the ball to FC Tulsa's 32%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.49 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Phoenix Rising and 0.50 for FC Tulsa.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa?

Phoenix Rising 0-1 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 45%, draw 26%, FC Tulsa 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Phoenix Rising) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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