Indy Eleven vs Louisville City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Indy Eleven v Louisville City — Team-Based Signals
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Indy Eleven
USLP
0-1
HT 0-1
Louisville City
USLP
2-1
HT 1-1
Louisville City
USLP
1-1
HT 0-1
Indy Eleven
USLP
Indy Eleven 1-3 Louisville City — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City got the better of Indy Eleven 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Indy Eleven had 49% of the ball to Louisville City's 51%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.20 to 0.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Indy Eleven.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Indy Eleven and 2.00 for Louisville City.
What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Indy Eleven 1-3 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 27%, draw 24%, Louisville City 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.