New Mexico United 1-1 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒04:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.91
Over 2.5
40%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.73
No
59%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 33% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
54%
-12.5pp
59%
BTTS No
46%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +7%
1.20/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.36
+2% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
15.0 Crosses 14.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.47 xG 2.17
55% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
396 Passes 300
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
11.09.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
26.06.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-2 HT 0-2 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-1
AWAY Birmingham Legion
0.78 xG 2.19
66% Ball Possession 34%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
450 Passes 205
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United and Birmingham Legion couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, New Mexico United had 66% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 34%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 0.78 to 2.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for New Mexico United and 1.50 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Birmingham Legion?

New Mexico United 1-1 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 47%, draw 25%, Birmingham Legion 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (New Mexico United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
21 Jul 2024
02:00 Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Analysis →
03:00 Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic Analysis →
03:30 FC Tulsa vs Memphis 901 Analysis →
05:00 Orange County SC vs San Antonio Analysis →
23:00 Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic Analysis →