Alloa Athletic 1-0 Kelty Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 27% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alloa Athletic EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.27/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/2.17
-25% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alloa Athletic
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kelty Hearts
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
6 Corners 6
19.03.2024 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 2-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
09.03.2024 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 3-0 HT 1-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
21.10.2023 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 3-1 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
19.08.2023 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 2-1 HT 1-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
15.04.2023 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 0-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
31.12.2022 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alloa Athletic
1-0
AWAY Kelty Hearts
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
5 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Alloa Athletic vs Kelty Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alloa Athletic edged past Kelty Hearts 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alloa Athletic as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Alloa Athletic had 43% of the ball to Kelty Hearts's 57%, shots finished 8-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alloa Athletic had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Alloa Athletic and 0.83 for Kelty Hearts.

What was the final score of Alloa Athletic vs Kelty Hearts?

Alloa Athletic 1-0 Kelty Hearts in the Scotland - 1st Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alloa Athletic vs Kelty Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alloa Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alloa Athletic 42%, draw 29%, Kelty Hearts 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alloa Athletic) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alloa Athletic) ✗ BTTS Yes
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