Sampdoria 1-0 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.84
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.73
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
13%
4.17
X/2
13%
7.66
X/X
10%
3.88
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
10%
6.43
2/X
9%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +9%
1.54/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.07
-7% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +41%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
417 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.5 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Südtirol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 0.84
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
511 Passes 334
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2024 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
28.10.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 3-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
14.08.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
1-0
AWAY Südtirol
0.55 xG 0.72
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
284 Passes 380
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sampdoria nicked a narrow win over Südtirol 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sampdoria as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sampdoria had 46% of the ball to Südtirol's 54%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.55 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Südtirol led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sampdoria and 1.67 for Südtirol.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Südtirol?

Sampdoria 1-0 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 41%, draw 28%, Südtirol 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sampdoria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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