PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.39
2-3 Goals
40%
2.11
4-5 Goals
26%
2.41
6+ Goals
12%
4.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.05
X/1
14%
4.63
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
11%
6.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.05
2/2
11%
7.01
2/X
5%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.05 — our 11% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-2.9pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.3pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.2pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.03/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.51
+15% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.1 Crosses 13.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ajax
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.98 xG 1.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
375 Passes 403
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
02.11.2024 Ajax Ajax 3-2 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
03.02.2024 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
29.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-2 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
30.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOK
23.04.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
2-2
AWAY Ajax
3.45 xG 2.51
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
432 Passes 251
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven and Ajax shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSV Eindhoven at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 62% of the ball to Ajax's 38%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 3.45 to 2.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.50 for Ajax.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax?

PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 55%, draw 19%, Ajax 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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