Heerenveen 3-2 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Sep 2025

Heerenveen
3-2 HT 1-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.64
6+ Goals
12%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.25
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
24.5
1/X
8%
12.0
X/1
13%
5.78
X/2
14%
6.32
X/X
7%
5.6
2/1
9%
22.8
2/2
15%
3.72
2/X
6%
12.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.5 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.4pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.8pp
39%
Away Win
35%
+4.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
-2.4pp
38%
BTTS No
36%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.46/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.43
-4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
18.2 Crosses 19.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 0.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
382 Passes 365
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.04.2025 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
19.10.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
10.03.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
07.10.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
06.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-3 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
04.09.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

Heerenveen 3-2 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
3-2
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.81 xG 0.84
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
206 Passes 383
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
37 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen nicked a narrow win over NEC Nijmegen 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 21% / 39%) promised a tight game; Heerenveen found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Heerenveen had 39% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 61%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.81 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Heerenveen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Heerenveen and 1.33 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Heerenveen 3-2 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 40%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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