Atlante 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlante EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 22%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.95/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.32
-2% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
393 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlante
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
09.03.2025 Atlante Atlante 2-1 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
22.09.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-3 HT 2-1 Atlante Atlante MEK2
13.05.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-2 HT 1-1 Atlante Atlante MEK2
09.05.2024 Atlante Atlante 2-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
22.01.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
26.11.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-1 HT 0-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
POST-MATCH Atlante vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlante edged past Leones Negros Udeg 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atlante as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlante had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atlante and 0.83 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Atlante vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Atlante 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlante vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlante win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Atlante 57%, draw 23%, Leones Negros Udeg 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlante) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atlante) ✗ BTTS Yes
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